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Gold – not much excitement even during high geopolitical risks in Russia

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After testing its all-time highs in May, Gold has been on a slow descent falling below 2000 last month and then continuing lower with June’s low standing around 1910.

Russia Situation didn’t generate demand

The Wagner – Putin conflict didn’t seem to affect gold price and generate demand for haven which would normally be expected. Granted the situation was largely resolved by the market open on Monday, but still the political and military establishment in Russia has been severely shaken.

In our view this shows that it is likely that we see another move lower in the precious metal’s price.

gold chart

Gold/USD daily chart

Gold Technical analysis

As of writing of this piece Gold was trading around 1925.  There is support standing around 1917, and the monthly low is around 1910. For a more significant move lower, a strong move below these two price levels needs to occur first. Then comes the 1900 handle and next support below that would be 1877 and the 200-day sma.

We don’t see this move materializing fast and, in our view, it will likely occur in July.

The scenario for upside move can occur if something changes fundamentally and risk assets start selling off. Then we can see a quick move towards the resistance of 1961 and after that another attack of the all-time highs.

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