How to Use an Economic Calendar
What Is an Economic Calendar?
An economic calendar is a schedule of economic data releases, central bank meetings, and other financial events that can affect currency prices. For Taiwan traders, the most important events include US Federal Reserve rate decisions (impacting USD/TWD), US Non-Farm Payrolls, US CPI, and Taiwan's own monthly export orders and CPI releases. The calendar typically shows the event name, date, time, previous value, forecast, and actual result. High-impact events are usually marked in red or orange.
How to Read an Economic Calendar
Each event has a volatility rating: low, medium, or high. Focus on high-impact events like interest rate decisions and employment data. The calendar also shows the 'previous' figure, the market 'forecast', and the 'actual' result after release. If the actual result differs significantly from the forecast, the market often moves sharply. For example, if US Non-Farm Payrolls come in much higher than expected, the USD/TWD pair could rally. Taiwan traders should note that the USD/TWD is most sensitive to US data and Taiwan's own trade balance figures.
Using the Calendar for Trade Planning
Start by checking the economic calendar every morning before you trade. Identify high-impact events for the day or week. If a major release is scheduled, decide whether to trade before, during, or after the event. Many experienced traders avoid trading 30 minutes before and after a high-impact release due to unpredictable volatility. Instead, they wait for the market to settle and then trade the trend. For Taiwan traders, it is also wise to monitor Taiwan's own data releases, as they can cause sudden moves in the USD/TWD pair.
Practical Example for Taiwan Traders
Suppose the US Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce an interest rate decision at 2:00 PM US Eastern Time, which is 2:00 AM the next day in Taiwan. You check the economic calendar and see the forecast is for a 0.25% rate hike. If the actual decision matches the forecast, the USD/TWD may already be priced in. But if the Fed surprises with a 0.50% hike, the USD could strengthen sharply. You can prepare by setting pending orders or simply staying out of the market until the volatility subsides. Always use a stop loss to protect your capital.