How to Do Fundamental Analysis in Forex
Understanding the Core of Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis examines the intrinsic value of a currency by looking at the health of its underlying economy. For forex traders in Taiwan, the most important currency pair is USD/TWD, but many also trade majors like EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Key factors include interest rates set by the Federal Reserve and the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan), GDP growth, inflation (CPI), employment data, and trade balances.
Key Economic Indicators for Taiwan Traders
Focus on U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – released first Friday of each month – as it moves USD pairs significantly. Also watch U.S. CPI, retail sales, and Fed speeches. For Taiwan-specific analysis, monitor export orders (especially semiconductors), industrial production, and the central bank's discount rate decisions. The USD/TWD pair is highly sensitive to U.S.-China trade relations and Taiwan's tech supply chain news.
Using an Economic Calendar Effectively
Set your economic calendar to Taipei time (UTC+8). Mark high-impact events like NFP, Fed rate decisions, and Taiwan's export data. Prepare your trades 30 minutes before release and use pending orders to catch breakouts. Many Taiwan traders use Forex Factory or Investing.com. Remember that news releases can cause extreme volatility – always use stop-losses.
Central Bank Policies and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are the most powerful driver of USD pairs. Taiwan's central bank also adjusts rates, but its moves are less frequent. A rate hike by the Fed typically strengthens USD against TWD. Taiwan traders should follow both central banks' monetary policy statements and press conferences for clues on future moves.
Geopolitical Events and Risk Sentiment
Taiwan's unique geopolitical situation means that cross-strait relations, U.S.-China tensions, and global trade disputes directly impact TWD. During risk-off periods, traders often flee to safe-haven currencies like USD or JPY. Stay updated on news from reliable sources like Reuters, Bloomberg, and local outlets like CNA (Central News Agency).