How to Do Fundamental Analysis in Forex
What Is Fundamental Analysis in Forex?
Fundamental analysis evaluates a currency's intrinsic value based on economic conditions. Unlike technical analysis (which uses charts), it looks at real-world factors like inflation, employment, and central bank policies. For Poland traders, this is crucial because the zloty is heavily influenced by both domestic data and Eurozone stability.
Key Economic Indicators for Poland Traders
Focus on these indicators:
1. Interest Rates – The Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) sets rates. A rate hike typically strengthens PLN.
2. GDP Growth – Strong GDP signals a robust economy, boosting PLN demand.
3. CPI Inflation – High inflation may lead to rate hikes, affecting currency value.
4. Unemployment – Low unemployment supports currency strength.
5. Trade Balance – Poland's export-heavy economy means a surplus supports PLN.
Also watch US Non-Farm Payrolls and Eurozone PMI, as they impact USD/PLN and EUR/PLN pairs.
How to Apply Fundamental Analysis in Your Trading
1. Use an economic calendar (e.g., Forex Factory) set to Warsaw time (CET).
2. Note release times for Polish and global data.
3. Compare actual data vs. forecast – a big surprise moves prices.
4. Combine with technical analysis for entry points.
5. Keep a journal tracking how news affected your trades.
Example: Trading EUR/PLN on NBP Rate Decision
Suppose the NBP raises rates by 25 bps while ECB holds steady. Expect EUR/PLN to fall (PLN strengthens). You could sell EUR/PLN after the announcement. In Poland, many retail traders use this strategy, especially during monthly NBP meetings.